Perhaps the most intriguing quarterback battle of the NFL divisional schedule unfolds on Saturday afternoon when MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs host Comeback Player of the Year front-runner Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts at 4:35 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a 5.5-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Colts odds, up a half-point from where the line opened. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas expects to be scored, is up to 57 after opening at 56. The Chiefs were among the NFL’s best this year, but the Colts are surging with 10 wins in their last 11 games. Both teams have covered nine times this season, so before making any Chiefs vs. Colts picks and NFL Playoff predictions of your own, be sure to check out the 2019 NFL playoff prediction from SportsLine’s Projection Model.
The advanced computer model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018-19, entering the divisional round on a blistering 16-6 run. For the season, it is now 30-15 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49. It also went 170-84 on straight-up NFL picks during the regular season, ranking inside the top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com. Additionally, it hit all four NFL against-the-spread picks on Wild Card Weekend. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now the model has dialed in on Colts vs. Chiefs (stream live on fuboTV). We can tell you it’s leaning under, but it has also generated a strong point-spread pick that’s hitting nearly 60 percent of the time. You can only see that one over at SportsLine.
The model knows that the Chiefs should benefit greatly from the bye week. Kansas City sprinted out to a blistering 9-1 start to the season, but looked more beatable down the stretch, losing three of its final six and two of the last three. Those losses came against playoff teams like the Chargers, Rams, and Seahawks.
Injuries were a big factor in that, and the week off should give several key players a chance to return at closer to 100 percent. Receiver Sammy Watkins (foot) has a chance to play for the first time since Week 11, while safety Eric Berry (heel) and running back Spencer Ware (hamstring) are also important players who will benefit from time off. A full strength Chiefs team will allow Mahomes to flourish in the NFL Playoffs 2019.
After a 2017 season lost to injury, Luck is back to his elite level. Finishing the regular season fifth in passing yardage and second in touchdown passes, he recorded seven 300-yard games and is exceptional keeping plays alive while avoiding big losses. Luck has been sacked only 18 times this season thanks to improved footwork and a quick release.
But the Colts don’t need a huge offensive performance to win. Indianapolis’ defense has been dominant since the halfway point of the season. Over the past eight games, the defense has allowed a meager 14 points per contest. Led by linebacker Darius Leonard’s team-leading 163 tackles and seven sacks, Indy’s front seven is capable of swarming any quarterback, including Houston’s Deshaun Watson, who was constantly hurried in throws and sacked three times last week.
Who wins Colts vs. Chiefs? And which side of the spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to be all over Saturday, all from the incredible computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors.